Weekly
Market Update Report
Perishables
& Non-Perishables
DATE:
February 11, 2009
Oil
and Shortening Weekly Market Trend
Category | Last | Last |
Soybean | - | 2/9/09 |
Corn | | 2/9/09 |
Canola | - | 2/9/09 |
Peanut | | 2/9/09 |
Cottonseed | - | 2/9/09 |
Margarine | - | 2/9/09 |
Dry
Commodities Weekly Market Trend
Category | Last | Last |
Flour | - | 2/9/2009 |
Pasta | - | 2/9/2009 |
Pinto | | 2/9/2009 |
Black | | 2/2/2009 |
Sugar | | 2/2/2009 |
Rice | | 1/19/2009 |
Dairy
Weekly Market Trend
Category | Pricing | Last |
Eggs | - | 2/9/09 |
Butter | | 2/9/09 |
Milk | - | 2/9/09 |
Cheese | - | 2/9/09 |
Poultry
Weekly Market Trend
Category | Pricing | Last |
Georgia | - | 2/9/09 |
Wings | | 2/9/09 |
Jumbo | | 2/9/09 |
Boneless | - | 2/9/09 |
Small | - | 2/9/09 |
Bnls | | 2/9/09 |
Tenders | - | 2/9/09 |
Small | - | 2/9/09 |
Leg | | 2/9/09 |
Turkey | | 2/9/09 |
Turkey | | 2/9/09 |
Turkey | | 2/9/09 |
Turkey | | 2/9/09 |
Beef
Weekly Market Trend
Category | Pricing | Last |
Commodity | |
|
Chuck | | 2/9/09 |
Rib | | 2/9/09 |
Loin | | 2/9/09 |
Round | | 2/9/09 |
Ground | - | 2/9/09 |
Pork
Weekly Market Trend
Category | Pricing | Last |
Pork | |
2/09/09 |
Pork | |
2/09/09 |
Pork | |
2/09/09 |
Hams | |
2/09/09 |
Pork | |
2/09/09 |
Pork | |
2/09/09 |
Pork | |
2/09/09 |
Pork | |
2/09/09 |
Spare | |
2/09/09 |
Seafood
Weekly Market Trend
Category | Pricing | Last |
Domestic | | 2/9/09 |
Mexican | | 2/9/09 |
Vannamei | | 2/9/09 |
Tiger | | 2/9/09 |
North | | 2/9/09 |
Cold | | 2/9/09 |
Warm | | 2/9/09 |
King | | 2/9/09 |
Snow | | 2/9/09 |
Pasteurized | - | 2/9/09 |
Scallops | | 2/9/09 |
Striped | | 2/9/09 |
Catfish | | 2/9/09 |
Cod | - | 2/9/09 |
Halibut | | 2/9/09 |
Pollock | | 2/9/09 |
Salmon | | 2/9/09 |
Tilapia | - | 2/9/09 |
Tuna | | 2/9/09 |
Calamari | | 2/9/09 |
Produce
Weekly Market Trend
Category | Pricing | Last |
Lettuce | - | 2/9/09 |
Strawberries | - | 2/9/09 |
Potatoes | - | 2/9/09 |
Onion--Yellow | - | 2/9/09 |
Apples | | 2/9/09 |
Oranges--113 | - | 2/9/09 |
Oranges--88 | | 2/9/09 |
Lemons--165CT | - | 2/9/09 |
Lemons--140CT | | 2/9/09 |
Avocados | | 2/9/09 |
Cucumbers--West | | 2/9/09 |
Cucumbers--East | | 2/9/09 |
Green | - | 2/9/09 |
Green | | 2/9/09 |
Tomatoes | | 2/9/09 |
Tomatoes | | 2/9/09 |
Frozen
Fruits and Vegetables Monthly Market Trend
Category | Pricing | Last |
Apples | | 2/28/2009 |
Bananas | | 2/28/2009 |
Strawberries | - | 2/28/2009 |
Blueberries | | 2/28/2009 |
Blackberries | | 2/28/2009 |
Boysenberries | | 2/28/2009 |
Raspberries | - | 2/28/2009 |
Rhubarb | | 2/28/2009 |
Cherries | | 2/28/2009 |
Mangos | | 2/28/2009 |
Peaches | | 2/28/2009 |
Cranberries | | 2/28/2009 |
Pineapple | | 2/28/2009 |
Papaya | | 2/28/2009 |
Avocados | | 2/28/2009 |
Asparagus | | 2/28/2009 |
Beans, | | 2/28/2009 |
Beans, | | 2/28/2009 |
Beans, | | 2/28/2009 |
Blended | - | 2/28/2009 |
Broccoli | - | 2/28/2009 |
Brussel | - | 2/28/2009 |
Cauliflower | | 2/28/2009 |
Carrots | | 2/28/2009 |
Celery | - | 2/28/2009 |
Corn | | 2/28/2009 |
Greens | | 2/28/2009 |
Okra | | 2/28/2009 |
Onions | | 2/28/2009 |
Peas | | 2/28/2009 |
Peas | | 2/28/2009 |
Peas | | 2/28/2009 |
Peppers | - | 2/28/2009 |
Squash | | 2/28/2009 |
Spinach | - | 2/28/2009 |
Zucchini | | 2/28/2009 |
Canned
Fruits and Vegetables Monthly Market Trend
Category | Pricing | Last |
Asparagus | - | 9/8/2008 |
Beets | - | 12/8/2008 |
Carrots | - | 11/10/2008 |
Corn | - | 1/12/2009 |
Dry | - | 1/12/2009 |
Dry | - | 12/8/2008 |
Mixed | - | 1/12/2009 |
MW | - | 12/8/2008 |
NE | - | 12/8/2008 |
NW | - | 1/12/2009 |
Sweet | - | 1/12/2009 |
Peppers | - | 12/8/2008 |
Pimientos | - | 7/14/2008 |
Sauerkraut | - | 1/12/2009 |
Spinach | - | 12/8/2008 |
Sweet | - | 1/12/2009 |
White | - | 1/12/2009 |
Apples | - | 1/12/2009 |
Apricots | - | 9/8/2008 |
Cherries | - | 1/12/2009 |
Maraschino | - | 11/10/2008 |
Cranberries | - | 1/12/2009 |
Fruit | - | 1/12/2009 |
Juices | - | 2/9/2009 |
Olives, | - | 9/8/2008 |
Peaches | - | 11/10/2008 |
Pears | - | 1/12/2009 |
Pineapple | - | 1/12/2009 |
Plums/Prunes | - | 2/9/2009 |
Pumpkin | - | 12/8/2008 |
CA | - | 2/9/2009 |
MW | - | 1/12/2009 |
NE | - | 1/12/2009 |
Puddings/Cheese | - | 2/9/2009 |
Import
Monthly Market Trend
Import | Pricing | Last |
Anchovies | | 1/29/09 |
Artichokes, | | 1/29/09 |
Artichokes, | | 1/29/09 |
Baby | | 1/29/09 |
Bamboo | | 1/29/09 |
Beans, | | 1/29/09 |
Beans, | | 1/29/09 |
Capers | | 1/29/09 |
Cherries, | | 1/29/09 |
Chocolate | | 1/29/09 |
Coconut | - | 1/29/09 |
Dates | | 1/29/09 |
Fruit | | 1/29/09 |
Fruit, | | 1/29/09 |
Grape | | 1/29/09 |
Lentils | | 1/29/09 |
Mandarin | | 1/29/09 |
Maple | | 1/29/09 |
Mushrooms, | - | 1/29/09 |
Mustard | | 1/29/09 |
Noodles, | - | 1/29/09 |
Oil, | - | 1/29/09 |
Oil, | - | 1/29/09 |
Oil, | | 1/29/09 |
Oil, | | 1/29/09 |
Oil, | - | 1/29/09 |
Oil, | - | 1/29/09 |
Oil, | - | 1/29/09 |
Oil, | | 1/29/09 |
Olive | - | 1/29/09 |
Olive | - | 1/29/09 |
Olives, | - | 1/29/09 |
Pears, | | 1/29/09 |
Peppercorns, | | 1/29/09 |
Pepperoncini | | 1/29/09 |
Peppers | | 1/29/09 |
Pimentos | | 1/29/09 |
Pineapple, | - | 1/29/09 |
Polenta | | 1/29/09 |
Rice, | | 1/29/09 |
Rice, | | 1/29/09 |
Rice, | | 1/29/09 |
Rice, | | 1/29/09 |
Rice, | | 1/29/09 |
Saffron | | 1/29/09 |
Sardines | | 1/29/09 |
Seaweed | | 1/29/09 |
Sesame | | 1/29/09 |
Snails | | 1/29/09 |
Spaetzle | | 1/29/09 |
Tomatillos | | 1/29/09 |
Tomatoes | | 1/29/09 |
Tropical | | 1/29/09 |
Tuna, | | 1/29/09 |
Tuna, | | 1/29/09 |
Tuna,Tongol | | 1/29/09 |
Tuna,Yellowfin | | 1/29/09 |
Vinegar | | 1/29/09 |
Wasabi | | 1/29/09 |
Waterchesnuts | - | 1/29/09 |
Dairy
CHEESE:
Barrels
closed at $1.1475 and 40# blocks at $1.1575. The weekly average for
barrels is $1.1330 (+.0275) and blocks, $1.1535 (+.0290). Prices on
the CME Group cash market edged higher as the volume traded fell
sharply from last week. Many buyers are taking advantage of current
prices to build inventory, for both current and later use. The
December Dairy Products report had cheddar production the highest
single month in at least 14 years, as cheese makers reverted to
making a traditional storable cheese when sales softened at yearend.
Including Feb. 29, U.S. 2008 cheddar output totaled 3.133 billion
pounds, 76 million pounds (2.5%) above 2007. Total cheese output in
2008 was 9.838 billion pounds, up 137.7 million pounds (1.4%) from
last year.
(Source:
USDA Dairy Market News, Week of February 2-6, 2009)
BUTTER:
The
cash butter price at the CME Group dipped to the lowest level since
June 2003 early in the week, but firmed by week’s end and
closed the week at $1.1025. The cash price is 5 1/4 cents above
support although nearly 1.6 million pounds of butter were offered to
CCC during the week. Thus far this year, nearly 3.7 million pounds of
butter have been offered under the Dairy Support Program, all from
Western producers. Churning activities across the country remain
seasonally strong as cream volumes are readily available. Often,
butter producers are selective with their cream purchases and are
trying to maintain production schedules that are in line with current
and projected needs. Some butter producers indicate that favorably
priced cream offerings are allowing them to procure additional
volumes and generate butter for inventory. Most indicate that there
is minimal down side to current price levels, thus inventory building
should not be too costly to them. Overall butter demand is fairly
active. Retail orders are quite strong, stimulated by occasional
feature activities. Food service orders are lighter as traffic flow
through food service outlets is often slower.
(Source:
USDA Dairy Market News, Week of February 2-6, 2009)
MILK:
Lower Class I prices in February
resulted in an increase in Class I use though not all areas showed an
improvement in orders. An ice storm, mainly in Kentucky, closed
plants and reduced demand due to the lack of electricity. Increased
fluid sales allowed many manufacturing plants to operate on slightly
lighter schedules. Current milk intakes vary little from recent
weeks.
(Source: USDA Dairy
Market News, Week of February 2-6, 2009)
EGGS:
Retail demand, according to
discussions held today, has not improved and is therefore still
considered to be sluggish. Food service demand is still substantially
below traditional levels, but its current posture is certainly not
unexpected due to the prevailing economic climate. Completed
wholesale trading activities for the larger sizes in all Regions, and
inclusive of mediums in the Midwest, are conducted at discounted
postures to existing quotations, as are the larger sizes of browns
everywhere. Moreover, non-certified white product exhibits
substantial discounts to currently stated ranges. Eggs for breaking
remain not aggressively sought but, when acquired, they are done so
below quotations. Overall supplies are ample to long. The market is
weak.
Commodity
Meat: Beef, Poultry, Pork
Boxed
Beef Overview:
Market
at a Glance
Harvest Last
Week – 622,000 This Week – 615,000
Packer
Production 36 hours in all plants
Packer
Margins Breakeven
Market
Tone Fair
Packer
Inventory Fair
Today’s
Sold Position 70%
Summary:
Higher Live Cattle prices has driven margin out of Beef production.
Packers will respond by reducing harvest levels to cut supply and try
to force higher prices across the Beef complex.
February
is traditionally a poor month for Beef demand and historically one of
the lowest production of the year. The market should be quiet
through the end of the month.
Chuck
Meat: Steady
Favorable
Retail demand. No Export volume
Rib
Meat: Steady
Forward
sales has stabilized Rib Eye prices and kept packer inventories
manageable.
Loin
Meat: Steady
Tyson
Fresh Meats began trading Choice 5/up PSMO Tenderloins late Friday
afternoon to relieve inventory concerns.
Retail
demand for Strip Loins has improved. Top Butts are steady but lack
demand.
Round
Meats: Steady
Inside
Rounds are in good shape. Gooseneck Rounds and Bottom Round Flats are
fair.
Peeled
Knuckles are improving and Eye Round are under pressure. As long as
harvest
levels
remain restricted the Round complex will remain steady.
Ground
Beef: Soft
The
seasonal value of Ground Beef will be under downward price pressured
due to the decreasing value of Cow lean meats for grinding.
PORK:
Weekly
harvest numbers continue to decline, but recently released data shows
a majority of these declines are from packers reducing their Canadian
hog harvest numbers in response to the MCOOL regulations. Cutbacks
that are US herd driven have been minimal as of last week, but are
expected to pick in the near future.
Hams:
Steady to Firm
Hams
continue to struggle and any resurgence in trade to Mexico would go a
long way in helping to stimulate prices. Short term forecasts call
for a gradual climb on both heavy and light hams between not and
early April.
Bacon:
Steady
Lack
of foodservice demand continues hold prices on bellies well below 5
year averages. Forecasters are calling for a more typical pattern of
steady for the short term, but do not look for prices to change
dramatically anytime soon.
Loins:
Steady
Overall
forecasts call for fairly steady markets. There is a bit of upside
potential in the boneless loin category as current prices are seen as
a value to buyers.
Butts:
Steady
Both
buyers and sellers appear to be comfortable with their current trade
levels. Forecasters expect prices to remain steady for the short
term.
Spare
Ribs: Steady to Firm
Prices
have worked slightly higher in recent weeks and are expected to
remain steady to firm for the short term. Price risk at this point is
to the upside as current price levels are seen as a bargain, but
forecasters do not believe any dramatic shifts upwards will occur.
Trimmings:
Steady to Firm
(No
Change) Forecasters continue to call for a small amount of upside
potential on both the lean and fat trim markets. However, slower
export concerns continue to dampen their calls for major upside
potential. Look for a few small shifts here and there, but nothing to
dramatic on either trim.
POUTLRY:
Chicken
Boneless
breasts have decreased mainly based on foodservice demand. Even
with supplier production cutbacks, market commentators have noted
that demand is below current supply. Tenders and wings should be
steady this week then weaken in the next few weeks. Even though the
big game is over, inventories are being re-stocked which we are being
told is supporting the market for the time being. Dark continues
steady with no big moves expected due to the financing and credit
concerns of overseas buyers. Whole birds continue steady to weak as
suppliers prefer to move whole birds into retail.
Turkey
Smaller
birds held steady for the week. Some weakness on mostly sideways
trading was seen in the larger birds. We continue to hear about
producer cutbacks and see their intent in markedly lower poult
placements. With the general state of the economy commentators are
hazy on just how this will affect prices for Thanksgiving.
Seafood
The
shrimp complex continues to hold a steady tone amid a lackluster
demand. Overseas replacement offerings have generally firmed limiting
seller’s interest in discounting as current inventories are
depleted.
Gulf
Domestic Shrimp: The market for HLSO shrimp was largely
unchanged, with the exception of weakness in the 21-25 counts. The
overall climate remains somewhat dull and offerings vary widely,
especially in the sizes around 16-20 count shrimp. PUD’s were
unchanged, though inventories continue to deplete.
Domestic
Shrimp
UB |
Mexican
White Shrimp Wild production is almost
complete. The 2008 production is
expected
to be about the same as 2007, but soft demand and inadequate farming
in Mexico to hold inventories has put downward pressure on the
market.
Mexican
Shrimp
UB |
Chart
based on monthly data
White
Shrimp 26-30 count HLSO white shrimp are full steady with a firm
undertone as some offerings are noted slightly higher. The balance of
the market from all areas is steady to full steady.
Vannamei
Shrimp
UB |
Chart
based on monthly data
Black
Tiger Shrimp: 26-30 and 31-40 count HLSO black tiger shrimp
supplies are short and wanted with premiums noted. 21-25 count are
full steady. Larger count shrimp are about steady for a quiet demand.
Tiger
Shrimp
UB |
Chart
based on monthly data
North American Lobster Meat & Tails
Maine
production was reported as nil. Market prices reflect product of
Canada only. Although the Canadian
supply
has been reported as fully adequate, many sellers reported paying
higher prices for replacement product. In addition to the rising
costs, an increase in demand was reported. Both contributed to the
firm market conditions
UB |
Chart
based on monthly data
UB |
Chart
based on monthly data
West
Australian Lobster Tails: The market continues weak as sellers
are motivated to move off inventory in a quiet to dull market. 7-8
oz. tails are offered higher than B’s. New season production
will soon be available to the market.
Warm
Water Lobster Tails: The market is about steady at listed levels
with some limited discounting noted except for 8 oz. tails which are
full steady.
UB |
Chart
based on monthly data
King
Crab:
King crab fishing is shut down now. Most areas will not re-open until
fall. Imports from Russia are down 50% from the prior year. With
on-going efforts by the Russian government to better manage their
ocean resources & curb illegal fishing, supply from those regions
will drop in the years to come. Prices for red & brown king crab
have fallen 10% the past few months & have stabilized at current
levels with reduced supply being matched with dull demand.
Availability in all sizes except 6/9 & larger red & in some
cases in Alaskan origin product specifically.
UB |
Chart
based on monthly data
AK
Opilio: The new season
Alaskan quota announced 58,550,000 lbs which is down about 7% from
last year’s 63,034,000 lbs. Fishing is now going on with 14% of
the quota caught through the 24th
of January. Prices should be more known and settled within a
week.
UB |
Chart
based on monthly data
Dungeness;
Inventories are good. Pricing is down a
little but seems to have stabilized and may push upward a little in
the months to come as fishing pressure on the coast has diminished
and most of the current catch is going live.
Pasteurized
Crab Meat
A
weak market was reported on Fresh Venezuelan meat as well as
pasteurized Indonesian meat. The lack of demand was cause for the
falling prices. Some sellers of fresh meat reported a loss of sales
to pasteurized product. With a slowdown in demand, and the economy in
general, some buyers are unwilling to hold fresh product. Burdensome
inventories of Indonesian meat caused sellers to offer deeper
discounts today. The market for Chinese meat was about steady. Some
weakness was noted on super lump.
UB |
Chart
based on monthly data
Scallops
New
days at sea begin March 1st and
all early indications are that overall, scallop sizing will run a
little smaller this year. In the short term, expect prices on large,
dry, domestic scallops to strengthen, with relief coming in mid to
late March. Bay scallop pricing remains flat, with some weakening
within the Chinese origin product.
UB |
Chart
based on monthly data
Pangasius
Hypophthalmus (Striped Pangasius, Swai) / Pangasius Bocourti (Basa)
Swai:
There
is still a pressure on pricing as worldwide demand has changed due to
the economic situation. More product is coming to the U.S. than
previously, putting downward pressure on prices.
UB |
Chart
based on monthly data
Catfish
Domestic
production for 2008 was only 3% higher than 2007 but the trend for
2009 is for lower production than in 2008. Imports of Channel Catfish
are once again increasing, but not enough to replace the domestic
production that has been lost. Other catfish species other than
Channel Catfish are filling the void. Production of Channel Catfish
in China is nearly done for the year. The harvest will resume in
August.
UB |
Chart
based on monthly data
Cod
Pacific
cod
Cod
is available in good quantities. The new season has opened. Prices
have
softened. This is a great value fish!!!
UB |
Chart
based on monthly data
Flounder
/ Sole
The
2009 trawl fishery has recently opened in Alaska and many trawlers
will initially target Rock Sole to ship to Japan. These vessels will
later switch to Yellowfin Sole. Although the 2009 quota for Yellowfin
sole has been reduced 7% from 2008, this will have little impact on
the supply of fillets. Typically the trawl fleet cannot catch the
entire quota each year (only 62% of the 2008 quota was caught). The
fishery usually ends when the trawl fleet exceeds the catch limit of
non-targeted species
Halibut
New
2009 Season set for March 21. A little later than the past few
years.
Quota is down approximately 10% from 2008. Inventories are
still
very strong.
UB |
Chart
based on monthly data
Pollock
RUSSIAN
POLLOCK QUOTAS RISE AS ALASKA’S FALL
As
expected on Saturday, the North Pacific Fishery Management Council
(the Council) voted to cut pollock quotas in the Bering Sea by 18.5%
to 815,000 metric tons (MT). The Council’s decision was
unanimous and followed the advice of its scientists, who believe the
Bering Sea pollock stock is experiencing a cyclical downtown in
abundance. In other words, they do not believe the reduced abundance
is a result of overfishing or poor management.
The
Secretary of Commerce must approve the Council’s recommendation
before it becomes law, but it is rare for the Secretary to oppose the
Council’s will.
Seen
over a longer time scale, the proposed 2009 quota of 815,000MT
represents a 45% drop since the most recent peak of 1.5 million MT in
2004 and will be the lowest pollock harvest in three decades.
BERING | |
all | |
Year | TAC |
1999 | 992,000 |
2000 | 1,139,000 |
2001 | 1,400,000 |
2002 | 1,485,000 |
2003 | 1,491,760 |
2004 | 1,492,000 |
2005 | 1,478,500 |
2006 | 1,485,000 |
2007 | 1,394,000 |
2008 | 1,000,000 |
2009 | 815,000 |
Avg. | 1,288,387 |
Implications
for frozen seafood buyers:
• Another large cut to Alaskan pollock
quotas will tighten availability of single-frozen pollock fillets,
MSC-branded pollock and other products reliant on the Alaskan
fishery.
• A pollock quota increase in Russia
may provide more raw material to Chinese processors, meaning an
increase in supply of twice-frozen fillets.
• But the supply chain of Russian
pollock processed in China may be complicated by the Russian
government, which aims not only to eliminate smuggled exports (often
to China) of pollock, but to process as much of its own raw material
in Russia.
• Especially for Alaskan products,
supply and demand suggest upward price pressure.
• But prices have risen steadily for
many species in the last three years, in many cases reaching record
levels. The current global economic slowdown has already caused the
floor to collapse from under the prices of many other species, so
tighter pollock supplies in 2009 may not necessarily force up prices
as we would normally expect.
UB |
Chart
based on monthly data
Salmon
Farmed
Salmon: Continued
production problems persist in the Chilean industry. The
situation
is expected to worsen even further starting in March / April.
Market
is steady and most likely will going forward.
Keta:
As no new Chum fisheries will
occur until June, the focus is on inventories. Inventories are
adequate as demand has declined slightly. Expect price to be
relatively stable until the start of the second quarter of 2009. If
there are still significant quantities in storage at that time,
holders of large inventories will seek to sell off fillets at lower
prices.
Coho:
The frozen inventories are barely
adequate. Look for strong pricing
through
the winter, especially on once frozen..
Sockeye:
Inventories currently are good.
Prices have stabilized. This is an
excellent fish to
be promoting through lent and beyond.
UB |
Chart
based on monthly data
Tilapia
Chinese
processing factories are now closed for the Chinese New Year holiday.
There will be no new frozen fillet supply available for about a
month. 2008 ended with a gradual decline in fillet prices as China
seeks to send more fillets to the U.S. that previously had gone to
other countries. As long as the Global economic malaise continues,
then this practice will continue and prices should ease further.
UB |
Chart
based on monthly data
Tuna
The
situation is similar to Swordfish. Upcoming peak harvest period and
stronger USD could mean softening market.
UB |
Chart
based on monthly data
Calamari
There
has been no change in the domestic calamari front - landings
continue to be steady, with the squid slightly smaller than we would
like, but not too bad. The weather continues to be a challenge,
though this week it has been ok - today at the dock we have over
50,000#s.
Overseas, China is very quiet as a result of
Chinese new year, so all production there has stopped. India is
between seasons, so there is no real news out of there. In
Peru, there have been some landings, for the first time in almost a
year. To date the sizing has been pretty small, but it appears
that things may be heating up there.
UB |
Chart
based on monthly data
Frozen
Fruit & Vegetables
Frozen
Fruit
Apples
The
Washington, Michigan and New Jersey apple production was
affected by poor weather but unsold stocks of foreign concentrate is
pushing pricing down. Reduced fresh exports is expected to bring
frozen pricing to lower levels as peeler grade fresh fruit stocks
become more available. Cold storage stocks are 3 million pounds
higher than 2007 reflecting the increasing availability. This lower
pricing compared to 2007 levels is expected to remain unchanged.
NO CHANGE
Avocados
There
is shortage of supply in CA with the San Diego fire. The
Chilean crop has been less than normal year attributed to the freeze
from 1 ½ yrs ago. Mexico has plenty of supply which is
typical for this area as they are the largest growing area in the
world. Mexican prices have gradually increased; however, it is
not as high as last year where they took advantage of the demand and
supply. Prices should peak in Apr-July. By the end of
2009, the beginning of 2010, suppliers advise we should see relief on
the supply from both California and Chile which they then believe the
overall avocado pricing will stabilize at that time.
Blackberries
Northwest
The
marion and sylvan variety packs were short of volume projections but
cooler than normal temperatures during the second half of the pack
resulted in enough volume to satisfy demand. The IQF cold storage
levels have fallen due to strong November movement. Continued strong
interest in this less expensive fruit will further reduce inventories
but pricing is not expected to strengthen because of unsold supplies.
The market is quiet. NO CHANGE
Chile
The
favorable winter weather conditions to date have resulted in crop
expectations similar to the previous pack. Unsold inventory in
Europe and China is forcing lower pricing. The harvest of the early
producing varieties has begun. The weak market is not expected to
change because buyers are delaying purchasing decisions in response
to expected reduced needs. NO CHANGE
Mexico
Brazo
Blackberry’s primary harvest is complete and the crop was good
upon completion. Fresh demand is greater than last year. NO
CHANGE
Blueberries
Cultivated
Strong
production in all growing areas except for the northwest resulted in
record fresh market shipments totaling 57 million pounds more than
2007 and a frozen pack of 309 million pounds, similar to the 2007
volume. The industry began harvest with 17 million additional pounds
in storage. The most recent storage report shows an additional 39
million pounds in storage even though 1 million additional pounds
were consumed in December compared to the previous year. This higher
storage volume has weakened pricing depending on quality and
location. NO CHANGE
Chile
Excess
unsold inventory that is available in Argentina, has lowered the
Chilean pricing. Fresh market pricing is lower than historic levels
but most of the Chilean crop to date has been sold fresh. Weather
conditions to date have been favorable for the fresh market and
producers will continue to minimize frozen volumes because of the
weak market. The unsold North American inventories are expected to
hold the frozen Chilean prices down.
Wild
Total
frozen production is satisfying demand because the Canadian
production met or exceeded projected volumes offsetting the weather
damaged Maine production. The frozen pack was 232.5 million pounds
compared to the 2007 pack of 182 million pounds. Pricing has
stabilized in Quebec but has weakened in other areas. Spot market
volumes are available to supply future market growth. NO CHANGE
Boysenberries
The
Northwest harvest is complete and pricing remains very similar to
2007. Fruit size is small and the harvest was later than normal but
supply appears to have satisfied demand. Cold storage levels are
similar to 2007 but little unsold fruit is available. Chile will
supply any additional requirements after the new year. NO CHANGE
Raspberries
Northwest
Pricing
has weakened slightly for block frozen packs but IQF remains strong,
fob packer’s warehouse. The cold storage stocks for block
frozen packs are 22% higher compared to 2007 but December movement
was 60% greater than the previous year in spite of the record
pricing. IQF volumes continue very short but movement doubled in
December compared to 2007. Short term pricing is expected to remain
strong for all packs until the start of the Chilean second flower
pack the last week in January. At that time, the Serbian purchases
by European and North American users and the unsold inventory levels
will impact the Chilean and future Northern Hemisphere market price
levels
Chile
The
harvest of the first flower is complete and volume is higher compared
to previous years because of warmer spring weather and favorable
weather patterns. The 2008/2009 frozen production is expected to be
approximately 88 million pounds, 10% higher than the 2007 crop
volume. Early new crop pricing has weakened and further reduction is
expected during the heavy February production period. Final pricing
is expected to be influenced by the availability of unsold European
stocks and the interest by European buyers as economies and needs
slow worldwide.
Europe
The market has
been quiet as buyers wait to see the impact of the new Chilean pack.
Pricing has dropped from opening levels. Estimates of unsold Serbian
stocks are 33 – 44 million pounds. This downward price
pressure is expected to continue in response to weakening Chilean
prices.
Strawberries
Northwest
Weather
conditions to date have been favorable and the fields are dormant.
Limited unsold inventory is available. The market remains relatively
quiet. NO CHANGE
California
The
frozen pack is complete and contract commitments have been satisfied.
Cold storage stocks are 36.5 million pounds less than the previous
year level, a gain of 17.5 million pounds compared to November levels
and reflecting the increased late season frozen pack volume. The
spot market offerings are very limited. New crop acreage is expected
to be similar to 2008 levels and pricing is expected to also remain
stable compared to 2008 contract levels. NO
CHANGE
Chile
The weather has
been favorable to date and the crop is expected to be similar to last
year. Unsold inventories are accumulating in packers freezers
because harvest volume exceeds sales confirmations. IQF pricing has
dropped and is expected to remain weak.
Cranberries
The
2008 crop is complete. The crop was slightly larger than last
year, but there is not much inventory available. The IQF market
is short, but there is plenty on the juice concentrate side. NO
CHANGE
Cherries
Michigan,
the predominate producer, is expected to produce the smallest
pack since 2002 due to the same weather that damaged the apple crop.
Crop losses range by area from 30% to 90% and the remaining fruit has
a higher defect level due to wind whip and cold storage stocks are
78% of 2007 levels. New crop pricing is higher than the 2007 pack
level. All of the carryover inventory will be used to supply the
shortage and the market is expected to remain tight. NO CHANGE
Mangos
The season has
been delayed as previously forecasted. Kent variety has started
being harvested for fresh export and prices are as high as double
last year’s pricing. The price for “industrial grade”
Kent used for freezing also remains very high compared to last year.
This has translated to offers for IQF not dropping significantly to
meet market expectations. While the market has remained speculative
waiting for prices to drop, there is no certainty at this time that
this will be the case. On one hand contracted volume has been
modest, which would derive in some price decline. But given the
little amount of raw material available, especially on industrial
grade, once contracts begin to close there will be a rush to secure
the raw material necessary and prices will firm again, possibly to
even higher levels than at present.
Papaya
Costa
Rica is currently out of any available raw material for production,
and it appears this will be the case for the foreseeable future.
Two factors are causing this. First, and most importantly, the
floods that have affected the Caribbean region, where most of papaya
plantations are. It will take several months to recover from
this. Second, a new variety has been replacing the traditional
Maradol. The new variety is as good (if not better) in color
and taste, but it is a much smaller fruit, a lot more convenient for
consumers of fresh fruit, but not efficient for processing. Ecuador
currently has sufficient Red Lady variety to offer in IQF.
Peaches
Domestic
The
California peach cold storage stocks are 5.2 million pounds more even
though the weather damaged cling peach crop was extremely short.
Slow food service movement is impacting this inventory movement.
Stocks are available to fill spot market demand and the market is
quiet. NO CHANGE
Import
Peaches
have held up with their pricing, with only 2 US sources there are new
players coming on the horizon and increased competition will change
this landscape in the near future. Peru mango industry is now
projected to be down 50% in 2009 crop (Jan-Feb) due to higher winter
temperatures preventing blossoming in their spring and aggressive
fresh mango marketing. NO CHANGE
Pineapple
Ecuador:
This is usually
the strongest time of the year for pineapple production in Ecuador.
There is good volume of fruit being harvested and, in
consequence, plenty of raw material available for process. After
this time period, however, availability of raw material for
processing becomes rather uncertain.
Costa
Rica:
Planted
area has not increased in recent months, perhaps shrunk due to what
has been lost in recent floods. Rough estimates have around 40%
of pineapple area in central northern CR, 30% in the south and 30% in
the Caribbean coast.
At
end of 2008 there was hardly any pineapple available for process.
This as a consequence of the floods, especially in the Caribbean
coast but also because growers purposely delayed induction of
flowering so that harvest period does not coincide with the Xmas and
New year vacation period. Production is expected to start picking up
towards the beginning or middle of February.
Frozen
Vegetables
Asparagus
China
No
change from the December update out of this region. New pack will
start up again at the end of March/beginning of April 2009. NO
CHANGE
Chile:
Production
finished in early December, having met production forecasts.
Peru
Production has
waned in past few weeks. With low yields from the fields coupled
with a weak market for fresh product, many growers have decided to
“close” their fields. Besides what remains on contract,
there could be available volume for cuts & tips. Next crop is
expected to start in March
Domestic
Asparagus
pack is complete. This item is in somewhat short supply and prices
are either stable or firming.
NO CHANGE
Beans
Green
Beans/Wax Beans
Domestic-
The
Northwest is a bit under budget as beans were a start/stop season.
The Midwest did not do as well, particularly with whole beans. The
combined regions pack was 90-92% of estimated need, less so on whole
beans, which continue increased demand. Italian Beans and Wax Beans
were on budget in the Northwest, but below budget in the Midwest.
Overall, both were a bit below anticipated need. NO CHANGE
Import
–
This
item continues to provide a complement to European, Domestic, and
Chinese supply in the coming seasons & are production volumes
have met forecast for December and we expect the same for February.
Lima
Beans
The
Northwest was on budget and the Midwest slightly below. Quality in
both regions was excellent. No carry over and steady demand keeps
the market firm. NO CHANGE
Broccoli
China
At
beginning of pack season, there was aggressive pricing from this
region that was compelling for some domestic buyers. But, there has
been poor weather (lack of rain) for the past 3-4 weeks in the main
broccoli growing areas. This has caused output to be less than
expected on the raw material side. Add that to strong internal
demand for fresh broccoli and this has pushed processed broccoli
pricing out of initial favorable range. This is expected to
hold firm through the Chinese New Year (early February).
Guatemala
December
was another cold & wet month out of Guatemala and the New Year is
forecasted to start out the same way. There are no changes from last
month as packers are in the midst of their “diversification”
pack season and broccoli production is at about 40% versus peak
season (July-December). They have seen consistent quality in their
raw material and in-coming tonnage is at forecast. Even though they
have experienced some cold and wet winter weather in December, they
haven’t had any problems keeping up with shipping schedules.
Mexico
Kicking off the
New Year, all reports indicate strong broccoli production throughout
the Bajio region. Cold nights and nice weather during the day are
allowing forecasts to be met for raw material in the fields. Barring
any weather related issues moving forward, suppliers can expect to
see good/solid production from January-March from this region.
Ecuador
No
change within this region from December, as January is forecasted to
bring more winter weather. The region has experienced some recent
hail storms which could start to impact production. However, at this
time supplier’s shipping volumes have not been affected. They
are keeping up with our shipping schedules to thei customer base and
fully expect to meet forecasted volumes for January.
Domestic
California
fresh broccoli market remains solid and quality is currently
excellent. The holiday fresh demand peaked for Thanksgiving and
after a brief dip, it rose again for Christmas. Weather has become
in increasing factor in California with wet and cold temps blanketing
the state.
Regular
deliveries to frozen plants from fresh sources were spotty until
after the holidays. Frozen prices are lagging behind fresh and
affected by inventories, relative disappearance or influx (movement)
and replacement costs. Moving forward, field availability is
reduced, and the fresh market remains solid for now. With this said,
deliveries to the frozen plants will be slow with no relief in raw
material costs. The possible inflow of cheaper raw material and
delivery to the frozen plants has vanished with the turn of the
weather. Will this lead to a higher California frozen price level?
Possibly. However, due to the comparably small volume of Frozen CA
product produced versus imports from Mexico, Guatemala and China, we
may not see a price shift just yet.
NO CHANGE
Brussels
Sprouts
Domestic
Suppliers
completed harvest with a budget pack met. There are no issues with
supply at this time. NO CHANGE
Import
Crop
in Belgium is complete and weather has, for the most part, been
cooperative during the main pack months and had minimal, if any,
impact on production. NO CHANGE
Cauliflower
Domestic
Domestic
Cauliflower will continue to be a problem with the number of packers
dwindling down to nothing. At this time suppliers are able to
keep things going, and will keep us advised moving forward. NO
CHANGE
Import
In
China, pricing is still on the high side and suppliers feel that
there will be a tangible drop after the Chinese New Year. This
item is not as impacted by the internal fresh market as broccoli.
Carrots
Domestic
Supply
should remain consistent barring any last season freezes in the San
Joaquin Valley (CA).
Packers
are currently harvesting in the SJ valley (Kern County) with good
yields and average quality levels. They do not foresee any quality or
supply changes through May as long as the weather remains mild.
Import
Europe
has had a relatively normal crop, so there is less demand on US
production and markets. Asia is currently in production and no
forseen problems to report at this time. NO CHANGE
Corn
Packing
is complete in both regions, but went way past what is considered
safe weather. Last month yields and quality declined, but overall
corn, both cut and cob was on budget. Carry over was minimal and
availability and demand in balance, but there was no surplus. Pricing
is firm. NO CHANGE
Greens
Greens
in Texas and Tennesee are in good supply and weather conditions are
favorable at this time. However, Greens growing in CA are very tight
due to the unfavorable weather conditions. NO CHANGE
Okra
Our
supplier’s “historical” season is slated to start
in late February/early March. NO CHANGE
Onions
Harvest
is complete and yield resulted well in terms of our suppliers meeting
our volume needs. Price and supply are steady at this time. NO
CHANGE
Peas
Green
Peas
Domestic
The
Northwest, in spite of a late and slow start, finished on budget with
overall good quality. The Midwest was not so lucky with some ground
washed out and an estimated 85% pack out. Overall, peas will be a
challenge. The market is firm. NO CHANGE
Import
The
pea crop(s) in England was “normal” and in Sweden “better
than normal”. This will have minimal impact on the general
European market as producers in these countries are producing for
long-term programs (and customers) and confirmed pricing pre-pack
season. However, there may be some opportunities for volume from
Europe into the US market. NO CHANGE
Snow
Peas
Extended
rainy season has also impacted the beginning of snow peas, and our
packer has been working closely with us to minimize any impact. At
same time, it is important to keep an eye on any fresh market
factors.
Sugar
Snap Peas
Pack
has gotten underway in Guatemala and packers are experiencing some
initial delays in production & they are roughly 7-12 days off
their original dates. Suppliers have been communicating regularly to
us and looking to minimize any impact at the beginning of the season.
They are not confirming additional tonnage at this point in the pack.
Peppers
Prices
have increased and reports from Mexico are favorable so far as far
as quantity is concerned. NO CHANGE
Yellow
& Zucchini Squash
Supplier’s
squash and zucchini pack has provided good diversification for their
customer base in recent years & our suppliers expect to provide
the same benefit (different origin & counter-seasonal production)
this year. Season is expected to run March 09 to May 09. NO
CHANGE
Butternut
& Hubbard Squash
Hubbard
Squash – Our supplier’s crop is complete. The quality
was good and they met budget.
Butternut
Squash – Due to the wet spring and cool season the Butternut
Squash did not size up this year. Our supplier’s yields
were reduced and they came up 15% below budget. Quality was
very good. NO CHANGE
Spinach
Domestic
Domestic
spinach is extremely tight at this time, due to poor weather
conditions in California. IQF Spinach is turning out to be a
troublesome item. The cold weather in the California dessert
has
completely halted all spinach production. Suppliers are reporting
that this could last up to 3 more weeks.
Import
Packers are in
full throttle production mode. Quality on produced spinach has been
very good. They have had great customer feedback on the quality
(color, texture, etc) and have been very pleased with the reaction
and movement of their product.
Canned
Fruits and Vegetables
“Customer”
Domestic Canned Fruit Market Report as of 2-9-09
Apples
The
availability for processing apples is down 30% from last year and
with high demand and limited raw product Suppliers will be protecting
their inventories. No new bids will be offered. This market is
extremely high in demand and tight on supplies. Markets will Remain
Firm.
Apricots
Processing
has been completed with a budget pack. Good quality has been reported
with the new crop. Markets will be Steady.
Cherries
- Dark Sweet
Growers
were impacted by a disastrous 2008 crop due to frost damage that
resulting in a 70% short-fall. Pricing is high and supplies will be
limited throughout the year. Markets will Remain Firm.
Cherries
– Maraschino
The
New Pack on Maraschino Cherries is complete with a 50% shortfall. US
Foodservice has secured adequate inventories throughout the year.
Markets remain FIRM.
Cranberries
Raw
product costs have increased significantly over last year with
domestic and export demand rising due to published health benefits.
MARKETS ARE FIRM.
Fruit
Mixtures – (Fruit Mix and Fruit Cocktail)
New
pack is complete with a below budget harvest. This will cause tight
supplies throughout the year as Suppliers try to manage below normal
inventories to meet growing demand. The MARKETS ARE FIRM.
Fruit
Bowls
Markets
remain FIRM with increases on the horizon to adjust for new pack
product costs. Markets will Remain Firm.
Juices
Markets
will increase on prune juice as the supplier adjusts to higher steel
can costs. Markets will Remain Firm.
Olives
– Domestic Black Ripe
Olive
growers are reporting 50% short crop this year due to poor weather
conditions in the growing areas. Inventories will be impacted by this
poor harvest and supply will be tight throughout the year. The
MARKETS will be FIRM.
Peaches
A
below budget pack will cause tight supplies throughout the year as
Suppliers try to manage below normal inventories to meet growing
demand. The MARKETS will be FIRM.
Pears
Inventories
will be tight as the year progresses with the below budget new pack.
MARKETS will be FIRM.
Pineapple
& Tropical Fruit Salad
Supply
of imported pineapple, pineapple juice and tropical fruit salad will
be tight. Suppliers are announcing possible allocations that will be
implemented and no new bids are being accepted. MARKETS will REMAIN
FIRM
Plums
Plums
have also been affected by the frost during the growing season.
Expect extremely tight supplies throughout the year. Markets remain
FIRM, but expect increases on the horizon.
Prunes
Suppliers
have reported good quality but a below budget harvest. Increased
domestic demand and demand overseas will put pressures on inventories
throughout the year. Expect increases in March as suppliers adjust to
the steel can increase. Markets will be FIRM.
Tomatoes
All
Tomato Growing Regions
Processing
is now complete with the mid-west crop down by as much as 15%. This
will have a profound impact on product availability. Supplies will be
tight this year primarily on the whole peeled and diced products and
Suppliers have already imposed allocations on these items. Demand
will be high and supply will be tight. Expect some increases from
California as the Supplier adjusts to higher ingredient and
processing costs. MARKETS WILL REMAIN FIRM throughout the year
Asparagus
New
pack is complete with suppliers reporting a budget pack. Markets will
be Steady.
Beans
– Dry Pack
Markets
continue to be impacted by higher raw product costs. Markets are FIRM
with more increases to follow throughout the year.
Beans
- Green
New
pack is now complete with Processors reporting a below budget crop.
Compounded by the fact there is no carry-over from last year, we
expect tight supplies. Suppliers are reporting critically low
inventories on certain styles with restrictions and outages. We
anticipate an inflationary market with limited supplies throughout
the year.
Beans
– Wax
New
pack is now complete with a below budget crop. This will result in
tight supply throughout the year. Markets are FIRM.
Beets
New
pack processing is complete with reports showing a poor harvest. The
industry demand will far exceed supply. Markets are FIRM with outages
and increases anticipated throughout the year.
Carrots
The
2008 pack is complete with a near budget pack. Markets will remain
FIRM.
Corn
– Golden Whole Kernel
New
pack is complete with good quality reported. Suppliers have reported
a near budget pack. Markets will remain FIRM.
Greens
- Southern
New
pack is now complete with a budget pack reported. Markets are FIRM.
Mixed
Vegetables & Peas & Diced Carrots
Pack
is complete with a budget pack. Markets are FIRM.
Peas
– Green Sweet
New
pack is now complete with reports of a near budget pack for the
exception of the smaller sieve sizes. Suppliers are reporting outages
and limited supply on 2 Sieve and 3 Sieve Peas. Markets are expected
to remain FIRM.
Peas
– Southern
New
pack is complete and supplies are available in all styles..
Peppers
– Bell – Green and Red
Peppers
– Green Chile & Jalapeno
A
poor harvest due to heavy rains will impact supplies throughout the
year. Markets remain FIRM with tight inventories prior to new pack.
Pimientos
New
pack is complete with adequate inventories.
Potatoes
- Sweet
Processing
is complete with most suppliers reporting a near budget pack.
Markets remain FIRM.
Potatoes
- White
THERE
IS NOT ENOUGH SUPPLY TO MEET THE INDUSTRY’S NEEDS. New
pack processing is complete with reports of a below budget harvest.
Strong demand continues to out weigh expected crop tonnage.
Allocations will remain in place with the new pack as suppliers are
struggling to build adequate inventories. Markets are FIRM with more
increases to follow throughout the year.
Pumpkin
- Canned
Processors
are reporting a below budget pack which may result in tight supplies
in 2009. Markets remain FIRM.
Salads
– 3 Bean/4 Bean/Italian & German Potato Salad
Markets
are FIRM.
Sauerkraut
New
pack processing is complete with a budget pack expected. Markets
remain FIRM.
Spinach
The
Fall Pack processing is in progress. Suppliers will be back in stock
by mid February. The Market remains FIRM.
Imports
TUNA
Volatility
is up in the tuna world. Financial pressure and panic brought end of
year skipjack pricing to a several year low, but poor catches in
January forced the price within days to shoot up. The initial steep
drop caused fishermen to stop fishing, leading to raw material drying
up, and a quick turnaround in the psychology of panicking packers and
traders. While very little quantities were sold at the lowest
prices, the market is now trying to stabilize at a level commensurate
with raw material costs – which itself is trying to stabilize
to a level commensurate with the catch. As panic subsides, true
fundamentals will take hold: the most important of which are the fish
catch, fish demand and fuel cost. While supply is variable, tuna
demand is expected to hold up in the current economy as consumers
turn to cheap proteins like canned fish. Currently, catching by
Japanese boats is moderate, reporting 26 mtons per boat per day in
Western Pacific; their Taiwanese and Korean counterparts performed at
a level similar to last week with 15 mtons/boat daily. French and
Spanish boats maintained catching in the Indian Ocean, taking in
15-20 mtons per boat/day. The whole Maldives remained poor, checking
in only 70 tons each day. Skipjack-Yellowfin ratios is 85:15 in the
Western Pacific; 25:75 in the Indian Ocean. Reported albacore price
in Bangkok is up from December. To top it all off, according to
Reuters, tuna catches in the south-western Indian Ocean are
reportedly down 30% as pirates blocked access to tuna-rich waters off
Somalia. From August-November 2008, fishing boats in the yellowfin
rich waters beyond Somalia's Exclusive Economic Zone were attacked by
pirates at least three times.
PINEAPPLE
and TROPICAL FRUIT SALAD (TFS)
After
last year’s tight supply situation, this year’s crop is
proving to be more abundant – not because of increased supply,
but rather weaker world demand. Thailand’s next season is
expected to come early as packers predict a March crop peak rather
that the usual April peak. China’s pineapple exports to the US
have been growing consistently since 2005 and the U.S. now accounts
for close to 50% of China’s pineapple export market.
MUSHROOMS
While
fundamentals reported by the packers should point to stronger market,
the overall market remains extremely weak. China’s crop season
is underway and growers are still reporting an estimated drop of 50%
in raw material supply. In the Fujian province, which accounts for
about 60% of China’s crop, the season started late due to
unusually warm weather. Most farmers, discouraged by the current low
prices, are reducing their output to minimize losses. However, it
is also being reported that most Chinese packers have carry-over
inventory from the 2007/2008 crop season. India continues to produce
regularly and is generally keeping competitive with China to
guarantee a continued order flow.
MANDARIN
ORANGES
The
Chinese crop season, whose peak started in mid-November, will be
ending early this year because of the sooner than usual date of
Chinese New Year. Volume is reported to be good this season with
likewise good quality of fruit expected. While the above average
quality is advantageous for whole segment production, it may actually
cause a shortage of broken segment packs. The Spanish crop season
has just ended as well and packers say that it was a good year in
terms of raw material. However, with an anti-dumping duty in place
on Chinese mandarins brought into Europe, Spanish pricing is
artificially inflated and totally uncompetitive for shipment to the
U.S. market.
ARTICHOKES
Peru
and Chile have both ended their crop seasons earlier that forecasted.
Farmers in southern Peru did not plant substantial quantities due to
drought; the next crop cycle doesn’t begin until April. Chile
has just been granted duty-free access to the U.S. (Peru already has
duty free access), while Spanish artichokes still carry a 13.8% duty.
The Murcia region in Spain was blanketed by a frost last weekend
that may negatively affect as much as 30% of the crop. Some packers
are reporting that only the first cut was affected; the second
flowering is already on the plants and should be available soon.
Other sources such as China, Ecuador, Egypt and Turkey have
industries still in their early stages. Product quality from these
countries is still far from that of Spain, Chile and Peru.
OLIVE
OIL/EDIBLE OILS
Initial
forecasts for the current season point to a total olive oil
production of 2,351,000 mtons, down from 2,451,000 last year, but up
from 2,526,900 the year before. Carryover, at 219,900, is similar to
last year. Consumption is forecasted at 2,353,000 this year,
compared to 2,433,000 last year resulting in a balance similar to
last year. Estimated crop size by major producing country is: Spain
1,100,000 mtons; Italy 500,000; Greece 250,000; Turkey 150,000;
Tunisia 120,000; Syria 100,000; and Morocco 70,000. Year-end
financial pressures on the smaller packers and farmers caused
significant weakening of raw material cost in December, while the
stronger U.S. dollar further lowered costs for the U.S. market.
January on the other hand brought some firming in costs, along with a
weaker dollar for a higher market price.
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