Weekly Monthly Commodity Market Updates

Date: September 30, 2009

The cheese market is firm as prices increased sharply on the CME Group cash cheese market from a week ago. Both barrel and block weekly average prices are more than 50 cents per pound below the comparable week in 2008. A few operators feel that the unusually strong finished product sales early in the year may take the edge off the usually more robust fall/holiday cheese interest. Good interest is noted for fresh mozzarella and Swiss with supplies tight to short. Cheddar blocks interest is moderate and barrels steady to occasionally D30improved. Seasonally tighter milk supplies, aided by increased fluid use, have reduced current cheese offerings and availability. (Information Source: USDA Dairy Market News, Week of September 21-25, 2009)

"Butter prices retreated slightly this week after strong gains last week. The CME Group cash butter price closed the week at $1.2600, one cent lower than a week ago. Sales activity has been active with 16 cars sold this week. There are some regional variations, but butter churning remains active. Cream supplies are mixed and depend on milk output, milkfat levels, shifting production of cream based products, fluid milk standardization, and pricing. Printers continue to prepare for upcoming holidays and microfix butter to supplement needs. Others are buying bulk butter from producers. (Information Source: USDA Dairy Market News, Week of September 21-25, 2009)
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Boxed Beef Cutout, Choice steady Cutout values are expected to remain steady with some spot market trading to occur designed to keep inventories rotated.
Boxed Beef Cutout, Select steady Cutout values are expected to remain generally steady with some spot market trading to occur designed to keep inventories rotated.
81% Lean Fine Ground Beef steady Ground Beef is steady
Inside (Top) Rounds - Commodity Trim, Choice steady Inside Round remain steady at current prices. Minor downward price adjustments are possible in the next 1 to 3 weeks.
Inside (Top) Rounds - Commodity Trim, Select gradual increase Inside Round remain steady at current prices. Minor downward price adjustments are possible in the next 1 to 3 weeks.
Heavy Lip On Rib Eyes, Choice gradual decrease The Rib Eyes market is at a seasonal bottom. Retail's request for holiday Rib Eyes pricing and tonnage commitments will rally the market during the the 1 to 3 weeks.
Heavy Lip On Rib Eyes, Select gradual increase The Rib Eyes market is at a seasonal bottom. Retail's request for holiday Rib Eyes pricing and tonnage commitments will rally the market during the the 1 to 3 weeks. USDA Select will not see the same demand as USDA Choice
5/up PSMO Tenderloins, Choice price decrease Tenderloins are still hovering at seasonal lows. Demand for expensive middle meats has not materialized. Expect steady pricing duing the next 2 to 3 weeks. Price increases are pending.
5/up PSMO Tenderloins, Select steady Tenderloins are still hovering at seasonal lows. Demand for expensive middle meats has not materialized. Expect steady pricing duing the next 2 to 3 weeks. Price increases are pending.
0X1 Strip Loins Boneless Strip Loins, Choice steady Strip Loins are not in demand by either Foodservice or Retail. The market value of Strip Loins should adjust lower as a result.
0X1 Strip Loins Boneless Strip Loins, Select steady Strip Loins are not in demand by either Foodservice or Retail. The market value of Strip Loins should adjust lower as a result.
Heavy Top Sirloin Butts - Commodity Trim, Choice steady Top Sirloin Butts will remain generally steady through 2010. Expect minor downward price adjustments short term.
Heavy Top Sirloin Butts - Commodity Trim, Select gradual decrease Top Sirloin Butts will remain generally steady through 2010. Expect minor downward price adjustments short term.
Tri Tips, Fat On, Choice price decrease Tri Tips will move lower as west coast retailers concentrate Pork, Poultry and other more seasonal beef cuts.
Tri Tips, Fat On, Select gradual decrease Tri Tips will move lower as west coast retailers concentrate Pork, Poultry and other more seasonal beef cuts.
Flap Meat, USDA Choice steady Flap Meat should remain in price. Supply is abundant. Packer will use price to balance and generate sales.
Flap Meat, Select steady Flap Meat should remain in price. Supply is abundant. Packer will use price to balance and generate sales.
2/up Ball Tips, Choice gradual decrease The value of Ball Tips have and will continue to move seasonally lower. Demand is minimal
2/up Ball Tips, Select steady The value of Ball Tips have and will continue to move seasonally lower. Demand is minimal
Boneless Beef Briskets, Choice 0 0
Boneless Beef Briskets, Select steady Look for Briskets to move seasonally higher. They will be supported by religious holiday volume followed by purchasing activity from Corned Beef supplier for St. Patrick's Day. The USDA is also been reporting strong forward sales.
Outside Skirts, Commodity Trim price decrease The Outside Skirt is showing signs of weakness. Inventories are starting to build at the packer levels forcing downward price adjustments.

Pork Loin Boneless w/Strap price decrease Slighlty lower trades are forecasted over the next 1-2 weeksw
Pork Loin Boneless Strap Removed steady Slighlty lower trades are forecasted over the next 1-2 weeksw
Pork Loin 21dn 1/4 in. lgt Bone In gradual decrease Steady trades are forecasted for the next 1-2 weeks
Loin Back Ribs steady Gradual declines are forecasted to continue
Hams 20/23 steady Hog suppliers are ample which should hold prices steady to slightly lower over the next several weeks
Pork Bellies 14/16 steady Steady to slightly lower trades are expected over the next several weeks
Pork Butts, 1/4 in. trim 5-10# price decrease Prices are forecasted to move up into the low 70's by mid October but the rally will be short lived
Spare Ribs steady Steady prices are forecasted for the next several weeks prior to prices moving lower by the end of October

Domestic Shrimp steady "Landings in the Gulf region continue to run well above last year. According to the NMFS, U.S. Gulf domestic shrimp
landings for August 2009 totaled 19.375 million lbs. (headless weight)
compared to 12.265 million in August 2008. This brings the 2009
cumulative total to 81.792 million lbs., or roughly 39 percent above
the same period last year. This rate of catch, along with the associated
inventories, is being met with only a fair to moderate demand. As a
result, discounts were noted throughout the brown shrimp complex.
HLSO white shrimp were once again largely unchanged, however
additional weakness was noted on the U12 count. Inventories of white
shrimp are reportedly thin, though vary by individual. PUD’s ranged
steady to weak. These items are still well supplied."

Mexican Shrimp steady "As bay production begins the market is unsettled
although selling pressure is noted from US Gulf domestic production."
Asian Blk Tigers steady "The HLSO market is steady at listed levels for a
limited supply."
Vannamei Shrimp (Asian, So Amer,Indian) steady "21-25 and 26-30 count Latin American farm-raised
shrimp are unsettled as Mexican production is entering the US market.
The balance of the HLSO market from all areas is about steady at listed
levels for a quiet demand.
30-40 through 50-60 count head-on shrimp are barely steady to weak
with some lower offerings noted for volume. Smaller counts are steady."
Domestic Catfish steady "Pangasius Frozen Fillets (Vietnam): 5 & up oz. fi llets fi rmed
slightly. The market holds a steady to full steady undertone as
supplies prove to be just adequate at newly quoted levels.
"
Cod steady Cod inventories are very good in all sizes across the board and much more affordable this year than last. There will be an opening in the Gulf in September to clean up the remaining quota, and expectation is that it will be over in a couple weeks. The next major season is in January.
Pollock steady Pollock prices are firm as the current season in Bering Sea is going slower than anticipated (approximately 50% of available catch has been harvested) Catch again is trending to the larger sizes. Next season in the Gulf of Alaska opens in September
Salmon Wild/Farm Raised steady "Farmed Salmon: The Northeast wholefish market is about steady to weak and adjusted lower on 6-8s, 12-14s, and 14-
16s. Supplies are fully adequate for a dull demand. European wholefish are also readily available and are causing additional downward pricing pressure on the Northeast wholefish market.
The European wholefish market is weak and the undertone
is unsettled; both higher and lower offerings are noted on all
sizes. Supplies are readily available for a lackluster demand.
The European fillet market adjusted lower on 2-3s and 3-4s.
Supplies are fully adequate for a dull demand.
European frozen fillets are still reported in the market; pricing
looks to trend between 4.35 and 4.50 for 3-4 pound d-trim
fillets. European portions are noted between 5.90 and 6.50.
The Chilean fillet market is unchanged, however the
undertone is weak. Supplies are adequate to fully adequate
for a quiet demand.
The Chilean Steelhead market is somewhat unsettled; both
higher and lower off erings are noted. Supplies are light for a
quiet demand.
The West Coast wholefish market continues to be unsettled
on 10-12s with both higher and lower off erings noted. 12-14s
weakened; supplies of this size have become fully adequate for
the current demand. The balance of the market ranges steady
to about steady. European wholefish are also reported to be
readily available in the West and are causing some downward
pricing pressure.
The West Coast fillet market is about steady and 3-4s adjusted
lower; a few lower offerings are noted.

Wild Salmon: The wild market adjusted lower on cohos;
supplies are fully adequate for a fair demand. Chums supplies
remain light and net kings are unchanged.
"
Crab steady "Canadian Snow Crab: The market advanced on 8-up crab and
adjusted slightly higher on 5-8s. Supplies range adequate to
barely adequate for a moderate to active demand. Demand was
especially improved on 8-up crab.
King Crab: The market remains unchanged but the undertone is
improved. Supplies are adequate for a moderate demand.

"
Scallops steady "The U10 count scallops continue to firm on
dry and processed also trended higher; landings of large scallops
remain limited.


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Oil & Shortening Overall category update Oil markets are expected to increase this week. Note: The threat of volatility is ongoing, and these markets continue proving that any slight unexpected change in information can spark changes to investor behavior patterns, resulting in market trade changes.